Don Brash's challenge for the leadership of ACT would have been ludicrous a couple of decades ago. It would have been unthinkable that a non-member could challenge for the leadership of a Parliamentary party. Yet today it is credible. Why?
I think it shows MMP parties evolving to fill a policy debate vacuum.
Western democratic parties were once crucibles of citizen participation in policy development. Today in New Zealand party members are largely impotent. It is not surprising that party membership is little prized. Party conferences are rigidly stage-managed. Policy remits are anodyne, if they are permitted at all, confined to topics with little long term party branding effect.
The credence of the Brash challenge is tacit recognition of inter-party competition as the replacement for the competition of ideas we formerly gained from debate among party factions. We no longer expect open policy debate within parties. It may be MMP or it may be the reflection of an impoverished media.
Whatever the reason open debate over ideas must now be across the safe insulation of party boundaries.
Without any formalised internal party 'faction' system neither National nor Labour have a hygenic mechanism for internal dissent over policy. I posted earlier this month on this problem for Phil Goff''s Labour.
Parties can not risk allowing humble members to impose policy discipline on their MPs. Political journalism is now pre-occupied with the mechanics of leadership, not ideas. Permitting obvious internal debate is interpreted as a failure of political management. It is reported only as division, disunity, and loss of authority to govern.
Twenty years ago we had Sir Douglas Graham and John Banks comfortably within one party, defining the spectrum of opinion on criminal justice policy, for example. Today all must pretend to unanimity, lest the media fish school up to feed on "weakness" and "disunity".
Yet we know we need policy challenge. Hence the widespread anxiety among National rank and file members for ACT to do well, even many who do not like particular ACT MPs.
Under MMP government coalition dynamics, a long term ruling National leadership will need other parties to own and 'force them into" necessary policies that will scare the middle voters. John Key can even be strengthened, if to those middle voters he alone can moderate the extremes without himself being extreme or exclusionary. He may seem to be all that can protect them from the Maori Party , or ACT or Winston, or the Greens, without driving those parties into wilderness extremism.
The commentators show clear consciousness of the appeal to National activists of an ACT without the confounding Hide factor.
Tracey Watkins is leading the pack. John Armstrong is surprisingly unequivocal in urging Rodney to go, Whale oil is, as usual, penetrating. Lindsay Mitchell fairly rebuts the age slur on Don Brash. Blair at Clint Heine and friends is left to express the old fogey view:
" I remain of the firm belief that the best, and probably only way to fully implement good laissez faire government in New Zealand remains through the National Party….you are never going to get an ACT (or Brash Party) Government, and it is always going to be through National that laissez faire policies will be implemented. It then becomes a question of how you get National to do it. Do you work within National and take them along with you? Or do you pummel them from the outside and hope to bully them into doing it? "
Kiwiblog is from the same school. His posts show the responsibility that might be expected from a house organ of National .
To the traditional tribal party member a challenge for leadership from outside a party will still seem bizarre, even from a person who embodies the party's values.
I'm reminded of a formative early legal engagement. In the mid 1980s I advised Richard Carter (who recently died as Sir Richard) on his extraordinary hostile takeover of AHI, to form what became Carter Holt Harvey Ltd. It was the boldest takeover in Australasia in its time. Against most of his professional advice, and to near universal puzzlement if not derision from the financial media, Richard insisted on launching (on market initially) a keenly priced bid for a company in which the majority of shares were held by a major Australian conglomerate which had publicly stated that its holding in AHI was not for sale.
Richard's victory, after months of siege, was due to his disregard of the received wisdom, and his view that the internal compelling logic would prevail in the end.
Presumably Don Brash hears similar music. He is genuine when he says he regards Rodney as a friend. But he presumably sees little alternative, and the downside from trying is trivial compared with the stakes.
The ACT Constitution shows the odds, nevertheless.
" 12.1 The Party shall have a Leader and a Deputy Leader appointed by the Board. When the Party is represented in Parliament by at least three Members of Parliament, a majority of the members of the Party’s Parliamentary caucus may make such recommendations to the Board from time to time as they see fit concerning the exercise by the Board of its powers of appointment, removal or replacement of the Leader or Deputy Leader, and the Board shall act on such recommendation accordingly unless at the meeting of the Board at which such recommendation is being considered at least eight (8) of those persons attending and voting otherwise resolve.
Don needs a caucus majority , or a hung caucus and a board simple majority, or 8 members of the board.
A long shot. Whatever the outcome of the ACT challenge, the respectful attention it is receiving suggests more long term stability for minor party participation in government. Constellations of parties may compete for the same activists in semi-respectful symbiosis. In effect "broad church" parties will become the parties of the middle, and the most vigourous democratic debate will be external, between aligned parties
Should clarify that the post on Clint's blog was written by me, not Clint.