The Hive notes that DPF’s Kiwiblog calculation of the effects of a swing on electorate seats does not capture the effects of new candidates in specific seats, including Wellington Central.

“Those seats with out incumbent MPs will be very interesting to watch. Not on Farrar’s list is Wellington Central. National did not have a strong candidate last time around, so Labour did better than it should have. This time around we have an impressive Labour candidate in Grant Robertson. We still don’t know the National candidate – Stephen Franks or Paul Quinn seem the most likely names. Both are likely to impact more positively than Blumsky.”
 

The seat regularly changes its representatives.